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Past Performance: A Guide or a Ghost?

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  Investing in private markets has traditionally been seen as an attractive option for investors seeking diversification and enhanced returns. These markets, comprising alternative investments like private equity, venture capital, real estate, and hedge funds, are often driven by asset managers who aim to generate significant returns, or "alpha," beyond what is achievable in public markets. Alpha represents the excess returns an asset manager generates over a benchmark, indicating their skill and ability to outperform the market. Yet, despite the allure of private market investing, one key question persists for investors: Can the historical performance of an asset manager reliably predict future performance? Historical performance is often treated as a key metric in evaluating an asset manager’s capability. However, history has consistently shown that the events and market behaviors we least expect often happen with greater frequency than we might assume. Given the dynami...